The Tool
Choose your variables. Set your baseline. Define what you're trying to predict. This is your model — built on what you know, not what someone else tells you.
How It Works
What are you trying to predict? Be specific. A stock price, a sales figure, a trend.
Pick the inputs you believe influence your outcome. Use what you know.
How much does each variable matter? Assign relative importance to each one.
Test against historical data. Find the pattern. Extrapolate to the future.
// Step 1 — Define Your Goal
// Step 2 — Choose Your Input Variables
// Step 3 — Assign Weight to Each Variable
How much does each variable influence your outcome? 1 = low influence, 5 = high influence.
// Step 4 — Your Result
// Full calculation engine coming soon. For now — record your inputs, run the numbers manually or in Excel, and log your results here. The pattern will emerge.
Using This Tool
Don't try to include every possible variable. Start with 3-4 that you genuinely understand and trust. You can add more once you see how the model behaves.
One result tells you nothing. Run the same model across 10 or 20 historical data points and look for where it was right and where it was wrong.
After several runs a pattern will start to emerge in your graph. That pattern is your algorithm finding its shape. Once you see it you can project it forward.
Your first model won't be your best. Every refinement — adding a variable, adjusting a weight — makes the output more reliable. This is an iterative process.